TOPEKA, Kan. (WIBW) – The big weather story is the unsettled weather pattern beginning. While we’ve had a few isolated showers develop both Monday and Tuesday afternoon the chances are a bit higher (although still small for the most part) through the weekend. While models hint at best chances for rain which will be highlighted below there still remains subtle differences between them which would indicate how widespread and/or heavy the rain will be at any particular time so we will continue taking this on a day by day basis. If you have outdoor plans the next several days I’d almost say today is the only day you want to be thinking about a Plan B but even today we’re talking about many spots especially the farther east you go dry for the majority of the day. The other days will be more hit and miss and with uncertainty on exact details with when and where exactly it will rain. This also complicates the temperature forecast however mid 80s is about as warm as it will get and that’ll be tomorrow and Friday with cooler temperatures for those in the thicker cloud cover and/or rain. As for hazards locally heavy rain and lighting are the major concerns however any storms late tomorrow into tomorrow evening may produce small hail and gusty winds.
Today showers in central Kansas from last night will weaken/diminish around sunrise however redevelopment is expected throughout the morning as a disturbance gets closer. This will be the focus for showers and storms spreading eastward throughout the day. While subject to change latest short term computer models have the line of showers along a Marysville to Manhattan, Council Grove line by noon with most if not everyone getting rain by 5pm. Highs will be in the mid 70s in north-central Kansas with cloud cover for much of the day to low 80s with upper 70-low 80s farther east as clouds thicken throughout the day and rain moves in. Winds SE/S 5-10 mph.
Tonight scattered storms will continue especially along and south of I-70 meaning areas along HWY 36 may not see much if any rain at all past sunset. Lows will drop in the low-mid 60s. Winds SE around 5 mph.
Tomorrow while hit and miss storms exists mainly in the morning then again late think most of the day will be dry with highs in the mid 80s. Winds SW/N around 5 mph.
This weather pattern looks to continue through Monday morning with hit and miss storms almost at any time with highest chances being early in the day then again late with most of the day dry. If there was going to be another day that I would consider thinking about a Plan B because rain may linger for most of the day it would be Saturday but even then with model inconsistencies confidence isn’t very high.
Looking ahead into next week models continue to diverge with inconsistencies throughout the week. What looked like it was going to be dry yesterday for the first part of the week now shows slight rain chances almost everyday. I have not put any storms chances in at this time but did add more cloud cover for Monday and Tuesday to compromise and will continue to keep an eye on trends the rest of the week.
ECLIPSE WATCH: The one model that goes out that far continues to show a chance for rain August 21st but keep in mind this is too far out to take it too seriously even though it’s been somewhat consistent all week so far. Saturday is the day the next long term model will have it in the forecast period, until then we have only one model to rely on.