Trump postpones VP pick – Politico
TRUMP POSTPONES VP PICK — Donald Trump said he would postpone the announcement of his vice presidential pick that had been scheduled for Friday morning following the terrorist attack in Nice, France. A truck driver plowed through a crowd celebrating Bastille Day in Nice, killing as many as 80 people. President Obama condemned what he said “appears to be a horrific terrorist attack.” Reports said authorities killed the driver of the truck, which was apparently filled with grenades and other weapons.
On Fox News, Trump said he had still not made a “final, final” decision even though multiple media reports suggested the reality TV star had settled on Indiana Governor Mike Pence, who arrived in New York on Thursday ahead of the now-postponed announcement only to reportedly turn around and head back to Indiana. Trump on Fox mentioned Pence’s name after those of Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie as possible VPs.
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TO REVIEW — Trump’s VP pick remains unclear; one of his high-profile convention speakers, NFL quarterback Tim Tebow, said he was not actually speaking; the GOP convention is $6 million in the hole and begging Sheldon Adelson to cover the short-fall (more on which below). Wonder what next week will bring?
TERROR IN NICE — Reuters: “An attacker killed up to 80 people and injured scores when he drove a heavy truck at high speed into a crowd watching Bastille Day fireworks in the French Riviera city of Nice late on Thursday … Counter-terrorist investigators were seeking to identify the driver, who a local government official said opened fire before police shot him dead. The official said weapons and grenades were found inside the 25-tonne, unmarked truck.
“The attack, which came eight months and a day after Islamic State gunmen and suicide bombers killed 130 people in Paris, appeared so far to be the work of a lone assailant. Newspaper Nice-Matin quoted unidentified sources as saying the driver was a 31-year-old local of Tunisian origin.” http://goo.gl/vIqeu6
HOLLANDE ADDRESSES THE NATION — FT’s Robert Williams and Pan Yuk: “‘France has been struck on the day of her national holiday — the 14th of July, Bastille Day — the symbol of liberty, because human rights are denied by fanatics and France is clearly their target,’ François Hollande, French president, said in an address to the nation. ‘The terrorist nature of this attack cannot be denied.’
“Dead and injured victims were scattered along two kilometres of the Promenade des Anglais seafront, local officials said, estimating that another 100 were injured at the Bastille day celebrations. Mr Hollande said the dead included several children and 20 of the injured were in a critical condition. … Mr Hollande extended for three months state of emergency that was imposed after November’s Isis-inspired attacks” http://goo.gl/WdfPFY
GINGRICH CALLS FOR RELIGIOUS TEST FOR MUSLIMS — Newt Gingrich on Fox News Thursday night: “We should frankly test every person here who is of Muslim background, and if they believe in Sharia, they should be deported. … Anybody who goes on a website favoring ISIS … that should be a felony and they should go to jail.”
Anyone care to count the constitutional violations in that statement?
RNC GOES BEGGING TO ADELSON — POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt and Shane Goldmacher: “Millions of dollars short and running out of time, organizers of the Republican National Convention have written an urgent request for $6 million to Las Vegas billionaire couple Sheldon and Miriam Adelson to cover the bills for next week’s festivities. In a letter addressed to the Adelsons, obtained by POLITICO, the Cleveland 2016 Host Committee revealed the names of more than two dozen prominent corporations and individuals who have reneged on a collective $8.1 million in pledged donations.
“The letter represents the most public acknowledgement to date that Donald Trump has directly cost convention organizers millions of fundraising dollars. ‘Over the past couple months, negative publicity around our potential nominee resulted in a considerable number of pledges backing out from their commitments,’ the letter says. …
NAMING NAMES — “It goes on to list the companies and wealthy individuals who have withdrawn their financial commitments. Among those who have canceled their donations, according to the letter, are David Koch ($1 million), FedEx ($500,000), Visa ($100,000) and both Pepsi ($500,000) and Coca-Cola ($1 million).
“The letter says the RNC has raised $58 million — putting the party $6 million below the $64 million that was promised to bring the convention to Cleveland. They ask the Adelsons to single-handedly close the RNC’s shortfall” http://goo.gl/8fuIHO
NEVER TRUMP CRUSHED — POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney: “Donald Trump’s allies on the national GOP convention Rules Committee crushed a proposal Thursday aimed at dumping Trump from the top of the Republican ticket — and they sealed its fate further by passing an amendment to ensure his nomination.
“The proposal affirms that delegates are unambiguously bound to the results of primaries and caucuses — meaning they can’t break with the will of voters and Dump Trump at the convention. It passed 87 to 12, and its passage was the first official sign that anti-Trump forces lack the votes to block Trump’s path to the nomination.” http://goo.gl/qMX90k
CONGRESS SKIPS TOWN — POLITICO’s Rachel Bade and Heather Caygle: “The fight to combat Zika won’t get another penny from Congress. Lawmakers still have no plan to fund the government. And the gun violence convulsing the nation? Don’t look to Capitol Hill for a solution. Lawmakers are blowing town … for a seven-week summer break — leaving behind a stack of unfinished legislative business jammed up in partisan gridlock.
“Senate Democrats on Thursday blocked a bill aimed at combating the mosquito-borne Zika virus. Earlier in the week, the House scrapped an ‘anti-terrorism’ package — the GOP response to the Orlando shooting — because of Republican infighting. And neither chamber has been able to bridge the partisan divide on guns — even as national polls show voters want Congress to do something following the Florida massacre that left 50 people dead and just as many wounded” http://goo.gl/zg7u2L
COOL NEW TOOL — Reuters Breakingviews launched a new web app: “The Economic Dream Team Machine allows users to try their hand at building a team of experts for Clinton and Trump to rev up the American economy.
“Breakingviews evaluated potential candidates for key economic positions like Treasury Secretary and Fed Reserve Chair and graded them in six categories … based on their experience and academic achievement” http://goo.gl/3NqFiI
DON’T FORGET … to sign up for our event on the economy and 2016 at the POLITICO Hub in Cleveland next week! All-star roster.http://goo.gl/rT1Kdf
BUSINESS TURNS ON TRUMP — NYT’s James B. Stewart: “Of all the groups promoting pro-business, pro-growth economic policies, none is more prominent and influential than the Business Roundtable. An elite group of chief executives of major American corporations, Roundtable members collectively have more than $7 trillion in annual revenue and employ nearly 16 million workers.
“Now, with the imminent nominations of … Trump and Hillary Clinton … it’s fair to say the Business Roundtable is fit to be tied. ‘There’s a great sense of frustration here,’ John Engler, the group’s president and a former Republican governor of Michigan, told me this week. ‘We’re now faced with two candidates who, when it comes to the United States economy, have diametrically opposite viewpoints from us. It’s cause for great concern.’” http://goo.gl/AK66X9
THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES – Colin Wilhelm and Patrick Temple-West on what having Mike Pence on the GOP ticket could mean for Jeb Hensarling’s financial overhaul bill — and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. — please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or firstname.lastname@example.org.
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CLINTON TEAM SHRUGS OFF POLLS — POLITICO’s Annie Karni: “Democrats are hoping party conventions and vice presidential picks will reset the narrative of the 2016 race, after a concerning set of new polls showed … Clinton running even nationally with Donald Trump and the race tightening in key battleground states. A New York Times/CBS poll … showed Clinton and Trump in a dead heat nationally, capturing 40 percent of the vote each, with 67 percent of registered voters saying Clinton is neither honest nor trustworthy.
“More worrisome … Clinton has dipped 10 percentage points in the same survey since April, when she led Trump 50 percent to 40 percent. … But Democrats close to the campaign dismissed the latest tightening — Clinton gave up a six-point national lead over Trump since a similar CBS poll conducted last month — as a temporary result of bad coverage related to FBI Director James Comey’s devastating” http://goo.gl/z7Olre
MM NOTE — The national polls for Clinton are not particularly good. But Mitt Romney was essentially tied with President Obama at this point in 2012. Trump may even open up a lead after his convention — assuming it’s not a disaster. Clinton should wipe that lead out after the Democratic Convention. Democrats should really start to worry if Clinton does not maintain a lead after her post-convention bounce ends and the debates begin on Sept. 26th.
BETTER STATE POLLS FOR CLINTON — New NBC/WSJ/Marist swing state polls released late Thursday showed Clinton up by six in North Carolina, seven in Florida, eight in Colorado and nine in Virginia. http://goo.gl/jtbqqZ
CHINA GROWTH STABILIZES — Bloomberg: “China’s economy stabilized in the second quarter as lending and consumer spending perked up in June, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy is responding to stepped up monetary and fiscal policy support. Gross domestic product rose 6.7 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, compared with a projection of 6.6 percent
“Industrial output and retail data for June beat estimates, investment slowed, and a separate report from the central bank showed the broadest measure of new lending beat all 29 analyst forecasts. A credit surge early this year has been a prop to growth even as it also raises questions about the sustainability of the expansion” http://goo.gl/gvu5PR
EXPORTS TO CHINA SLOW — WSJ’s William Mauldin: “China’s economic roller coaster is taking a bite out of American exporters, hurting U.S. industries ranging from mining equipment to cotton producers and adding to criticism that China is getting more than it gives in trade with the U.S. The U.S. shipped just $42.4 billion to China in the first five months of the year, or 8.2 percent less than the year-earlier period and 13.8 percent below the peak export year of 2014, according to the Census Bureau.
“The export drop comes as China’s economy, while slowing, is still officially expanding at more than 6 percent a year. That growth is driven in part by the mountain of goods — worth $174 billion so far this year — the U.S. imports from China. That is quadruple the size of its exports to China during those months, and only slightly less than 2014 levels. The slowdown in U.S. exports could exacerbate accusations in the 2016 presidential campaign that China is engaged in unfair trade practices”http://goo.gl/5Enru6
HOW PRIVATE EQUITY EXPANDS ITS REACH — NYT’s Ben Protess, Jessica Silver-Greenberg and Rachel Abrams: “Since the 2008 financial crisis, Fortress and other private equity firms have rapidly expanded their influence, assuming a pervasive, if under-the-radar, role in daily American life, an investigation by The New York Times has found. Sophisticated political maneuvering — including winning government contracts, shaping public policy and deploying former public officials to press their case — is central to this growth.
“Yet even as private equity wields such influence in the halls of state capitols and in Washington, it faces little public awareness of its government activities, The Times found. Private equity firms often don’t directly engage with legislators and regulators — the companies they control do. As a result, the firms themselves have emerged as relatively anonymous conglomerates that exert power behind the scenes in their dealings with governments” http://goo.gl/vTL46j
FDIC CHAIR SAYS NOT FULLY INFORMED OF HACKS — WSJ’s Donna Borak: “Senior executives at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. didn’t have full knowledge of cyberattacks tied to the Chinese government, the agency chairman told lawmakers Thursday. FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said in his prepared testimony for a hearing before the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology that the agency’s unit responsible for computer systems ‘did not fully inform’ him or other members of the agency’s board and senior executives about incidents that occurred in 2010 and 2011.
“The breaches came to light in May when the agency’s inspector general released a 2013 report stating that cybercriminals hacked into nearly 100 computers at the FDIC, stealing bank customers’ personal information. The 2010-2011 hacks involved a dozen computers used by FDIC executives, including Sheila Bair, the agency’s chairwoman at the time.”
NO EFFORT TO PROTECT CHAIR — Per a person close to the FDIC: “I think the chairman made quite clear that he had no knowledge of anyone not sharing the info to protect him and that the IG found in a 2013 report that he himself and other board members had been kept in the dark.”
CANTOR ON CANTOR — Former House GOP majority leader Eric Cantor, now at Moelis & Co., in an interview with Bloomberg’s David Gura on why he lost: “I think some have said it was like the canary in the cold mine, and there is some validity to that. … I think at large what is going on in politics today, not just on the Republican side … there is a larger portion of the population who feel — and legitimately so — that they have been left out of any kind of growth.
“And what I am hopeful of is that my party can speak out and affect some solutions to the problems these people are facing. I think that for too long the party has been focused on theory without its application or execution, and think that is what is so badly needed now in our country, and in many industrialized counties.” http://bloom.bg/29TwaM6
COULD THERE BE A FALL SHUTDOWN? — POLITICO’s Seung Min Kim and Ben Weyl: “Top Senate Republicans and Democrats are already at odds over a stopgap government spending measure that will almost certainly be necessary in September to stave off a shutdown, as Congress prepares to leave for an extended summer recess having sent no appropriations bills to the White House so far this year.
“Lawmakers, mostly in the House, have already been debating whether to write a short-term government spending measure that runs into December or a six-month stopgap measure that would expire in March under a new Congress and president. Congress ultimately pushed funding bills into March in 2008 and 2012, the last years with presidential elections”http://goo.gl/oPM639
JPM PRESSED ON BREXIT — FT’s Ben McLannahan: “JPMorganChase wanted to talk about a ‘strong’ quarter as it presented results for April to June on Thursday morning: record consumer deposit growth, disciplined pricing in car loans, a big pick-up in mortgages. However, Wall Street analysts were much more interested in the future. On an hour-long call, they peppered top executives at America’s biggest bank with questions on Brexit. What would it mean, if the UK really left the EU? What would be the effects on costs and revenues? What plans have you made for this ‘monumental’ event?
“The grilling came after Jamie Dimon was indirectly rebuked by senior City of London figures for appearing to talk down the UK’s prospects in the wake of the referendum. The tone was different on Thursday. Marianne Lake, chief financial officer, said the bank would take its time to sift possible outcomes, ‘depending on when Article 50 is invoked.’ Mr Dimon … emphasised that whatever happened, the bank would be backing London and the EU in general” http://goo.gl/Qzl2J9
INVESTORS LESS BULLISH — Via results of the latest E-Trade quarterly tracking study of experienced investors: “Results indicate investor views of the market turned less positive: A majority of investors remain bullish at 55 percent, down 6 percentage points from the previous quarter. While most (69 percent) believe the market will either stay where it is or rise, significantly more investors believe the market will drop this quarter, up 11 percentage points to 31 percent”
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