Markets enjoy relief rally amid Greek deal optimism – USA TODAY
Financial markets are betting once again that Greece will seal an 11th-hour deal with its European creditors and avoid default and a possible exit from the eurozone.
A relief rally around the globe is underway — at least for the moment. Stock markets in Europe are up sharply and market action on Wall Street in early trading is bullish amid hopes that a revised, last-chance Greek proposal will kick0ff real negotiations at today’s emergency meeting of European finance ministers. Even if a deal doesn’t get hashed out today, investors view the improved tenor of the talks as a sign a deal will likely get done later this week.
After the emergency meeting broke up, Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs meetings on his euro-area counterparts, confirmed that the Greek government earlier today submitted a new set of proposals to end the impasse over more aid to Greece.
Dijsselbloem told reporters in Brussels, according to Bloomberg, that the proposals were welcomed and that a more complete assessment is still to come.
“It’s an opportunity to get a deal this week and that’s what we’ll work for,” he said.
In early trading, U.S. shares are heading higher, taking the cue from stock markets in Europe, which are up sharply. Minutes after the opening bell on Wall Street the Dow Jones industrial average was up 120 points, or 0.7%, to 18,136. The Dow is on pace to erase all of Friday’s triple-digit loss.
Stock indexes in Europe were up even more. The German Dax is up 3.1%, the CAC 40 in Paris is up 3.1% and the FTSE 100 in London is 1.3% higher. The biggest gains are in Greece, where shares of the Athex composite index are up more than 6%.
Greece, according to reports, has made a number of concessions and reforms to its creditors, including talk of gradually increasing the retirement age for government employees, which would reduce the government’s pension obligations. However, details of the new Greek proposals remain scarce.
Still, Martin Selmayr, a senior aide to Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission’s president, wrote in a Twitter post early Monday that the proposals by the Greek government were a “good basis for progress.”
Hopes for a deal eventually getting done has been accompanied today by the resumption of risk-taking by investors, who are betting that a worst-case outcome to the Greek debt deal talks are less likely. Markets, of course, have been volatile in recent sessions as the June 30 deadline for Greece’s $1.8 billlion debt payment to the International Monetary Fund moves ever closer.
What are the odds of a deal?
“The most likely outcome, with a 75% probability, is a deal,” Credit Suisse analysts said in a note on Monday, according to Reuters. “An unfortunate but predictable feature of European crisis decision-making is that such deals are only ever made at the last minute, ‘at the edge of the abyss’,” the firm said.