Here’s what could move the most if the Fed hikes – CNBC
As Wall Street prepares for the first rate hike in nearly a decade, traders are expecting to see some big swings in one particular market.
The Fed has discussed raising rates as early as this year, although some analysts have predicted a delay into 2016. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Friday on CNBC that it’s too early to determine if there will be a rate hike in September.
When interest rates do start to rise, Gina Sanchez of Chantico Global said currencies will likely be more volatile than stocks, bonds or commodities.
“Right now the currency markets are really what’s in focus, particularly given the currency move in China,” Sanchez said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “That sets up an interesting precedent for other currencies around the world … a lot of money is going to be made and lost over the next six months.”
Sanchez said moves in stocks and bonds will be comparatively smaller, since Fed officials have relayed plans for a gradual increase in interest rates.
“I don’t think that the markets are necessarily going to see this as a reason to create turmoil,” she said.
Currencies in emerging markets such as Brazil, Vietnam and others have plummeted this year, driven by slowed growth in China, collapsing commodity prices and the prospect of a rate hike. In contrast, the U.S. dollar has gained more than 6 percent year to date.
But the dollar has seen a pullback recently amid the global selloff, losing more than 3 percent in four trading sessions last week.
Nili Gilbert, portfolio manager at Matarin Capital Management, said the pullback is due to uncertainty surrounding interest rates, leading investors to transfer money into the euro and the yen. However, once that uncertainty passes, the dollar will bounce back, she said.
“In the longer term, once the Fed begins to raise rates, we expect that there are tailwinds that will allow the dollar to continue to rise again,” Gilbert said.