ZURICH — European officials and business executives are quickly mobilizing a counter effort to the expected U.S. rebuff of the Iran nuclear accord, encouraging companies to invest in Iran while urging Congress to push back against White House moves that could hobble the deal.
The European stance — sketched out on the sidelines of an Iran-focused investment forum in Zurich this week — is an early signal of the possible transatlantic rifts ahead as America’s European partners show no sign of following the White House call to renegotiate the landmark pact with Tehran.
“The nuclear deal is working and delivering and the world would be less stable without it,” Helga Schmid, the secretary general of the European’s foreign policy service, said in a speech at the Europe-Iran Forum.
This amounted to a warning shot that Washington may once again find itself isolated from its key Western allies, who have already broke with the White House over issues such as President Trump’s call to withdraw from the Paris climate accord.
Trump plans next week to declare that the 2015 Iran deal — which curbs Iranian nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief — is no longer in the U.S. national interest, according to U.S. and European officials. Such a move would then give Congress 60 days to vote to reimpose sanctions.
This could pave the way for the deal’s collapse or, more likely, Europeans and others such as China and India could keep up their growing economic and diplomatic engagement with Iran with the United States on the outside looking in.
European diplomats and business leaders, said they hope the 60-day period will provide them with a diplomatic buffer zone in which they can convince Congress to salvage the agreement.
“There’s a period of 60 days where things need to work out in a way that upholds the [agreement] with the U.S. still in it,” said a senior executive at a Europe-based multinational company. The executive spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters related to Iran sanctions.
“There’s no real alternative” to the deal, the executive said, adding that “it’s an illusion to think you can reopen and renegotiate” it.
The agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, was result of years of negotiations between Iran and world powers. It was hailed as a victory for global diplomacy and nuclear nonproliferation, and allowed Iran to resume oil exports and foreign companies to tap in to a vast new consumer market.
Since then, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. atomic watchdog tasked with monitoring Iran’s nuclear program, has repeatedly certified its compliance with the deal.
Still, the Trump administration has said the agreement does not go far enough in countering Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for groups that the United States considers as terrorists, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Trump is expected to announce a major policy shift on Iran next week — one that will more aggressively target Iranian security services and push for more radical enforcement of the deal, officials say.
The deal has been “put into question in harsh terms by some in recent months,” said the foreign policy group chief Schmid said, referring to the U.S. administration.
“Some critics say that the agreement does not address Iran’s regional activities,” she said, adding that “this is a nonproliferation agreement. It is not an agreement on regional matters or human rights . . . The JCPOA should not be blamed for something it is not supposed to address,” she said. “As Europeans, we will do everything to make sure it stays.”
Part of that effort to save the deal, which promised economic benefits for Iran, includes reassuring European companies and banks that they have political support for their investments, even as some businesses have struggled to navigate Iran’s volatile economy.
As a measure of confidence, the European Commission has recommended that the European Investment Bank be allowed to operate in Iran in the future, Schmid said.
The Danish Export Credit Agency also said this week that it has approved eight Iranian banks for credit lines. And even if wide-ranging sanctions are reimposed on Iran, “we would cover their losses,” said a senior official from the agency, Jorn Fredsgaard Sorenson. “We offer banks this risk.”
But for others, the risk may be too great.
Before the nuclear deal, the United States imposed what are known as secondary sanctions, where the Treasury Department penalizes companies or people who do business with Iran. The fear is that the United States may revive those strict regulations — putting foreign companies doing business in Iran under the cloud of possible U.S. clampdowns.
“We need to be compliant with international law, or applicable law. And if sanctions come back and that means we cannot do our work inside our outside Iran, then we will stop,” the executive from the multinational said.
“Iran is a big market. It’s also quite a stable country,” the executive said. But multinational companies “have to consider markets around the world, and Iran today is still relatively small, compared to Europe or the U.S.”