Another reason for Warren VP pressure? – Politico
ANOTHER REASON FOR WARREN VP PRESSURE? — It’s far from the biggest reason but some Dems are suggesting that Harry Reid and his likely successor as Democratic leader in 2017, Chuck Schumer, would not be terribly sorry to see Sen. Elizabeth Warren move down Pennsylvania Ave. to the Clinton White House. Schumer wouldn’t have to worry about Warren constantly pushing him and the caucus left — including on financial services issues. Again, the main reason is she’s dynamite against Trump, but other motivations may be in play …
ANOTHER CARROT FOR SANDERS? — As Sen. Bernie Sanders goes about winding down his campaign, one Democrat notes that if Clinton routes Trump and sweeps in a Democratic Senate majority, the Vermont senator could be chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, where he could put all his issues front and center. He’d have even more leverage if he took the gavel after helping deliver his voters to Clinton.
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FRIDAY FUNNIES — M.M. spoke with an official involved in putting together the GOP convention in Cleveland who lamented that the Trump coronation could be another in a series of bad breaks for the mistake by the lake. This person suggested t-shirts reading: “The Drive. The Fumble. The Shot. And now The Donald.” If you don’t now what those things were: http://es.pn/22X9jjj
TRUMP TREASURY SECRETARY? — M.M. wants to hear from you on possible candidates to serve as Treasury Secretary under Donald Trump. Glenn Hubbard? Carl Icahn? Steve Schwarzman? Who else? Email us your thoughts on email@example.com
SANDERS ENDGAME NEARS — POLITICO’s Gabriel Debenedetti: “The walls are crumbling, and Bernie Sanders knows it. Barack Obama made his support for Hillary Clinton official on Thursday. So did Vice President Joe Biden and liberal hero Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The major political groups surrounding Sanders are saying it’s time to unify. The campaign is rapidly winding down around Sanders, the Senate gadfly-turned-unlikely revolutionary who outperformed everyone’s expectations, and he finally began to acknowledge it Thursday.
“‘We need real change in this country. And what people also understand is that no president, not Bernie Sanders, not anybody else, can do it alone,’ he told roughly 3,000 supporters gathered near Washington’s RFK stadium … The courtship letters his campaign had planned to send superdelegates have been put on hold. His go-to argument — that he polls better against Donald Trump than Clinton — has been scrubbed from his public statements.” http://politi.co/1U9MMwg
HOUSE PASSES PUERTO RICO BILL — POLITICO’s Colin Wilhelm: “In a victory for both Speaker Paul Ryan and the White House, the House of Representatives Thursday passed a bill to resolve Puerto Rico’s $73 billion debt crisis, taking a major step toward helping the island avoid a historic default. Support for the bill came from a mix of Republicans and Democrats, emblematic of the rare compromise struck between congressional Republicans and the Obama administration.
“Ryan lent significant political capital to fixing Puerto Rico’s debt crisis during negotiations for government funding in December, pledging to move legislation to address it in the first quarter of the year. The bill passed by a 297-127 vote. … Ryan and his whip team managed to deliver a majority of Republican votes, averting the past costly victories of his predecessor, John Boehner … Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has pledged to take up the House bill prior to July 1, when Puerto Rico faces default on $2 billion in debt payments” http://politi.co/1XdhCaE
TREASURY SECRETARY JACK LEW on the Puerto Rico bill: “I commend the House of Representatives for acting today to pass critical legislation to address the debt crisis in Puerto Rico. The bill is a bipartisan compromise, and while it is not perfect, it will stem the crisis and allow Puerto Rico to reduce its debt payments so it can focus its resources on building a healthy economic future for the 3.5 million Americans who live on the island.”
FIRST LOOK: FINANCIAL INCLUSION REPORT — The White House Council of Economic Advisers on Friday will publish a new issue brief: “Financial Inclusion in the United States.” From the report: “In a range of areas in the economy it can be expensive to be poor, with low income consumers paying more for everything from diapers to canned soup. One area where these challenges are particularly prevalent is in finance.
“Lack of access to safe and affordable financial services-which include payment settlement, credit intermediation, and maturity transformations, provided to consumers by a range of financial institutions-is not only costly but is also significantly more common for lower-income households.” Full report live at 8am: http://1.usa.gov/1WHtEt1
CLINTON: WARREN COULD BE VP — POLITICO’s Annie Karni: “Hillary Clinton on Thursday said she has no doubt that Sen. Elizabeth Warren would be qualified to serve as her vice president. ‘I have the highest regard for Sen. Warren,’ she said in an interview with POLITICO. ‘I think she is an incredible public servant, eminently qualified for any role. I look forward to working with her on behalf of not only the campaign and her very effective critique of Trump, but also on the issues that she and I both care about.’” http://politi.co/1PNzhDX
GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Happy weekend everyone. Email me your Trump Treasury thoughts and anything else to firstname.lastname@example.org and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. I’m close to 40K followers and it’s annoying not to be over it. So tell all yo friends.
THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCIAL SERVICES – Patrick Temple-West on the SEC’s crucial decision affecting high-speed stock trades — and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. — please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or email@example.com.
COMING NEXT WEEK: OBAMA HITS THE TRAIL — Per release: “President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will campaign in Green Bay, Wisconsin on Wednesday, June 15. … In Green Bay, President Obama and Clinton will discuss building on the progress we’ve made and their vision for an America that is stronger together. Earlier in the week, Hillary Clinton will campaign in Ohio on Monday, June 13 and Pennsylvania on Tuesday, June 14.
TRUMP STIFFS WORKERS I — WSJ’s Alexandra Berzon: “Trump often boasts on the presidential campaign trail that hardball tactics helped make him a successful businessman, an approach many voters say they admire. Those tactics have also left behind bitter tales among business owners who say he shortchanged them.
“A review of court filings from jurisdictions in 33 states, along with interviews with business people, real-estate executives and others, shows a pattern over Mr. Trump’s 40-year career of his sometimes refusing to pay what some business owners said Trump companies owed them. A chandelier shop, a curtain maker, a lawyer and others have said Mr. Trump’s companies agreed to buy goods and services, then reneged when some or all were delivered.” http://on.wsj.com/1sy01Oi
TRUMP STIFFS WORKERS II — USAToday’s Steve Reilly: “Trump casts himself as a protector of workers and jobs, but a USA Today Network investigation found hundreds of people — carpenters, dishwashers, painters, even his own lawyers — who say he didn’t pay them for their work.” http://usat.ly/1YdAwxu
IS THIS MARKET RALLY FOR REAL? — Wells Capitals James Paulsen: “[T]he contemporary rally looks and feels much more likely to break to new record highs than it did last year. Much of the character of the 2016 stock market rally is very different from the character of the 2015 rally.
“Overall the current rally is benefiting from much broader participation, a total lack of competitive yields pressures, increasingly positive U.S. economic momentum and continued investor pessimism. Our guess is the S&P 500 index will soon breach the overhead resistance of old record highs and perhaps rise to about the 2200 level.”
FED TO TAKE SUMMER OFF? — Via Morgan Stanley: “At the June meeting, we think policymakers will hold to the 2-hike expectation for this year, but lower the 2017-18 dots. Not only does the looming risk of Brexit keep the Fed on hold in June, but the conditions necessary to support any summer hike have also faded. At the conclusion of the June 14-15 meeting, we expect: The FOMC to hold the target range of the federal funds rate steady at 0.25 to 0.50 percent; the statement to describe early signs of a rebound in 2Q growth that is led by the consumer.”
CHAOS IN CLEVELAND? — CNBC’s Lori Ann LaRocco: “One delegate, who is on the RNC’s all-powerful credentials committee and who spoke on a condition of anonymity, told CNBC: ‘Until all the delegates are validated by the credentials committee, he is not the official nominee. We have to make sure the all delegates are valid. Then you have Mr. Trump saying his campaign was going to challenge some of the delegates. This is far from over. He is not the official GOP nominee.’” http://cnb.cx/1ZBU0KW
EXPLAINING TRADE, ONE KNIFE AT A TIME — Breaking Views’ Rob Cox uses his grandfather’s electric GE carving knife to explain free trade and 2016: http://reut.rs/1YhdJ4n
CLINTON EMAIL PROBE FOCUSED ON DRONE EMAILS — WSJ’s Adam Entous and Devlin Barrett: “At the center of a criminal probe involving Hillary Clinton’s handling of classified information is a series of emails between American diplomats in Islamabad and their superiors in Washington about whether to oppose specific drone strikes in Pakistan. The 2011 and 2012 emails were sent via the ‘low side’ — government slang for a computer system for unclassified matters — as part of a secret arrangement that gave the State Department more of a voice in whether a [CIA] drone strike went ahead, according to congressional and law-enforcement officials …
“Some of the emails were then forwarded by Mrs. Clinton’s aides to her personal email account, which routed them to a server she kept at her home in suburban New York when she was secretary of state, the officials said. Investigators have raised concerns that Mrs. Clinton’s personal server was less secure than State Department systems. The vaguely worded messages didn’t mention the ‘CIA,’ ‘drones’ or details about the militant targets, officials said.” http://on.wsj.com/1ZCQ6le
TRUMP CONVENES FINANCE TEAM — NYT’s Matt Flegenheimer and Maggie Haberman: “Trump convened the first meeting of his national finance team on Thursday amid persistent Republican concerns that a shortfall in fund-raising efforts and a lack of discipline were imperiling his presidential bid. During the gathering at the Four Seasons Hotel in Midtown Manhattan, Mr. Trump dwelled little on his recent controversies, including his comments about the Mexican heritage of the judge presiding in a lawsuit filed by former students of Trump University.
“But a top Trump surrogate, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, did allude to the recent bumpiness of the campaign, said an attendee, John A. Catsimatidis, a New York investor and grocery magnate. ‘People make mistakes,’ Mr. Christie said, according to Mr. Catsimatidis, ‘and they take it back.’ … Mr. Trump had initially said he hoped to raise roughly $1 billion by November for himself and the party, but efforts to date have been well off pace. He has since revised that figure downward” http://nyti.ms/25OFZkk
FOREIGN HUNGER FOR U.S. DEBT RISES — WSJ’s Min Zeng: “The global hunger for U.S. government debt is intensifying as investors seek better returns from the negative yields and record-low rates found in Japan and Europe. On Thursday, an auction of 30-year Treasury debt attracted some of the highest demand ever from overseas buyers, at a yield of 2.475 percent, the lowest for the 30-year bond since January 2015.
“It was the second sale in as many days to draw strong foreign interest. On Wednesday, the Treasury sold $20 billion of 10-year notes with a record share going to buyers outside the U.S., offering a yield of 1.702 percent, down sharply from the 2.461 percent investors got a year ago. The European Central Bank’s bond-buying program and a negative-rate environment in Japan are keeping U.S. yields down even as riskier assets like stocks and oil have risen” http://on.wsj.com/1YheF8E
GROSS WARNS ON NEGATIVE RATE BONDS — FT’s Robin Wigglesworth and Joel Lewin: “The $10tn pile of negative-yielding government bonds is a ‘supernova that will explode one day’, according to Janus Capital’s Bill Gross, underscoring the rising nervousness over the previously unthinkable financial phenomenon. Central banks in Europe and Japan have moved their benchmark interest rates below zero. This, combined with investors’ ravenous appetite for bonds, has pushed the yields of more than $10tn of sovereign debt into negative territory.
“This is costing investors billions of dollars and forcing many to buy increasingly longer-dated or more lowly rated bonds that still offer positive yields — and has sparked concerns that investors could be exposed to painful losses if yields, which move inversely to prices, snap back up.” http://on.ft.com/1RYRCbl
NO, THE ECONOMY ISN’T THAT BAD — WP’s Catherine Rampell: “[I]f you go by the historical record, we may have exceeded expectations for where we should be this many years after a severe financial crisis. And relative to most other countries that weathered a crisis when we did, we’re doing spectacularly well. …
“It’s true that the Great Recession has been followed by a slow and shallow recovery. Rather than bouncing back with annual growth rates in the 3 or 4 percent range, as we might have hoped, we’ve been trudging along at about 1.5 to 2.5 percent. Hiring has lately disappointed, too. This record seems pretty damning. Except, in the grand scheme of things, it’s not.” http://wapo.st/1tfwol1
POLL BLAST: TRUMP SINKS — Fox’s Dana Blanton: “The new poll shows Hillary Clinton with a three-point edge over Donald Trump (42-39 percent) in a hypothetical matchup. That’s within the poll’s margin of error. … Clinton’s edge over Trump is due to a six-point drop in support for him rather than an increase for her. Trump was up by 45-42 percent three weeks ago (May 14-17, 2016). Since then, he lost three points among self-identified Republicans and 11 points among independents.
“Clinton is ahead among blacks (+76), unmarried women (+34), women (+18), lower-income households (+14), and voters under age 30 (+13). Trump is preferred among white evangelicals (+42), whites without a college degree (+25), whites (+16), men (+15), and independents (+5). Expect the race to remain tight, as people are pretty set with their choice.” http://fxn.ws/1YhfqPf