Poll: Half of voters support impeaching and removing Trump – POLITICO
The new poll is the latest public survey to show plurality or majority support for House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry, which began in earnest last month amid evidence that Trump used his power as president to press foreign governments to investigate his political rivals. But other polls show Americans are more divided on whether Trump should be removed from office.
In the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, respondents were asked a series of three questions: whether they support the impeachment inquiry, whether they would support the House’s impeaching Trump and then whether they would support the Senate’s voting to remove him.
At each step, voters were split sharply along partisan lines. On the inquiry, 84 percent of Democrats, 16 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of independents support it — while 12 percent of Democrats, 81 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of independents oppose it.
And while the topline results are virtually indistinguishable on the following two questions, there is some movement among partisans. Support for the House’s voting to impeach Trump ticks up among Democrats, to 88 percent from 84 percent, and down among Republicans, to 12 percent from 16 percent. Independents are divided: 44 percent would support the House’s impeaching Trump, and 42 percent would oppose that.
Similarly, Democrats would support the Senate’s voting to remove Trump from office, 88 percent to 7 percent. Among Republicans, only 12 percent would support Trump’s removal, and 83 percent would oppose it. Roughly as many independents would support the Senate’s ousting Trump (44 percent) as would oppose it (43 percent).
Other polls show a larger gap between approval of the impeachment inquiry and support for Trump’s removal. But those polls also have important methodological differences that shed light on the results.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll released on Tuesday first asked respondents whether Congress should or should not have begun an impeachment inquiry of Trump. A majority, 58 percent, said it should have — and then they were asked whether the House should vote to remove him from office.
Of the respondents who said Congress should have begun an inquiry, 86 percent said the House should impeach Trump — which netted out to 49 percent support for Trump’s impeachment. With 38 percent saying Congress should not have begun an impeachment inquiry, that leaves 6 percent of respondents who think the inquiry is appropriate but don’t think the House should vote to impeach Trump.
A Quinnipiac University poll, also released Tuesday, asked separately about the inquiry and impeachment and removal — but in reverse order. In an initial question, Quinnipiac found voters split on whether Trump should be impeached and removed from office: 45 percent said yes, while 49 percent said no. But in a subsequent question, the school found that 53 percent of voters approve of Congress’ “formal impeachment inquiry to determine whether or not to bring impeachment charges” against Trump, while only 43 percent disapprove.
Another poll released Tuesday, from NBC News/Wall Street Journal, asked respondents a three-pronged question. In that poll, 24 percent of Americans think “there is enough evidence for Congress to impeach Donald Trump and remove him from office now.” More than three in 10, 31 percent, think “Congress should hold an impeachment inquiry to determine if there is enough evidence to see if he should remain or be removed from office.” And 39 percent think “there is now enough evidence for Congress to hold an impeachment inquiry of Donald Trump, and he should finish his term as president.”
Putting that together, roughly 55 percent of Americans support the impeachment inquiry, and 39 percent oppose it.
On a subsequent question, respondents are asked whether, “based upon what you know today,” Trump should be impeached and removed. On that question, 43 percent say he should be impeached and removed, while slightly more, 49 percent, say he should not.
The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, which found more consistent support between the inquiry and further steps toward impeachment and removal, also found a similar split when it comes to the political ramifications of possible floor votes in both chambers.
“President Trump’s impeachment inquiry is drawing strong — and divisive — interest from voters with an eye toward the 2020 election,” said Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president. “For instance, roughly four in 10 voters would be more likely to vote for a senator who backs removing Trump from office, including seven in 10 Democrats. This compares with 35 percent who say they are less likely to vote for a senator who backs removal, including seven in 10 Republicans.”
House Republicans have argued that the 31 Democrats who currently hold seats in districts that Trump carried in 2016 could be squeezed by a future vote on articles of impeachment, while Senate Democrats argue conversely that the two GOP senators in states Hillary Clinton won that year would face pressure to convict Trump based on his conduct.
While the poll shows voters divided on impeachment, a solid majority disapproves of Trump’s conduct over the past week. Nearly six in 10, 58 percent, say it was inappropriate for Trump to publicly urge China and Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden. Only 28 percent think that was appropriate.
Despite the rash of negative news coverage, Trump’s approval rating remains at 41 percent in the new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll — identical to last week’s survey. But 57 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, including 46 percent who strongly disapprove.
The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll surveyed 1,991 registered voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.